The Short Report

Just one person's opinion from their bedroom: no qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Leveraged products are high risk and you can lose all your money.

The Short Report — Tue 13 Oct 2026

Published Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 06:00 UK

Yesterday's call

Nothing to mark yet: this is the first one. From tomorrow every call gets marked right or wrong here, and old ones never get edited.

What I saw

Yesterday the FTSE rose and finished at 10,656, its second up day in a row. Lloyds led the way. Japan fell hard overnight, US tech futures fell, oil fell. It's sitting just above a rising line on the 15-minute chart, around 10,624, that it has bounced off 4 times.

Thu 8Fri 9Mon 12High & close 10,656Falling line 10,640Rising line 10,624Low 10,550Thu 8Fri 9Mon 12High & close 10,656Falling line 10,640Rising line 10,624Low 10,550
FTSE 100, 15-minute closes, UK time. Tap or hover for prices.

What I think

I think the FTSE drifts a bit lower or goes nowhere. I think it stays between 10,600 and 10,680. I think it ends the day around 10,620 to 10,640.

Why: It's gone up two days in a row, US tech shares were weak late on, it ran out of steam after a jump to 10,680, it's sitting right on its rising line. If it breaks below 10,640, I think it slips further. What would change my mind: if oil and bank shares keep going up, the line holds, or it goes back up to 10,680–10,700.

When I say "short" I just mean I think it'll fall.

How sure I am

I'm not sure.

The numbers

OvernightLastMove
Japan (Nikkei 225)67,472-2.26%
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)24,176-0.39%
Australia (ASX 200)8,778-0.06%
US 500 futures7,842-0.20%
US Tech 100 futures30,650-0.80%
Brent oil105.65-0.94%
Pound vs dollar1.3217-0.00%
VIX (US fear gauge)15.21+2.49%
UK 10-year gilt yield5.45%about the same
FTSE levelPriceNote
Yesterday's high10,656Price turned within 5 points of here 5 times in the last 20 sessions, mostly turning down from it, last on Wed 30 Sept. Last traded here Mon 12 Oct. In the past, when the FTSE broke the previous day's high, it typically rose another 28 points, and it finished above that high about 6 days in 10.
Yesterday's close10,656Same price as yesterday's high: it closed right at the top.
Yesterday's low10,550Price turned within 5 points of here 4 times in the last 20 sessions, last on Fri 9 Oct. Last traded here Mon 12 Oct. In the past, when the FTSE broke the previous day's low, it typically fell another 35 points, and it finished below that low about 5 days in 10.
Rising line under the recent lows10,624Price has touched it 4 times since Fri 9 Oct, last on Mon 12 Oct. If it breaks below it, I think it slips further.
Falling line over the recent highs10,640Price has touched it 3 times on Mon 12 Oct. Price closed back above it.
Mon 12High & close 10,656Falling line 10,640Rising line 10,624Low 10,550Mon 12High & close 10,656Falling line 10,640Rising line 10,624Low 10,550
FTSE 100, 15-minute closes, UK time. Tap or hover for prices.

Today's diary (UK time)

UK Europe US

  1. UKUK shop sales vs a year ago (BRC survey)
  2. UKBank of England's Greene speaks
  3. EuropeGerman inflation, final figure (vs last month)
  4. USUS Fed's Waller speaks
  5. USUS small business mood
  6. USUS weekly jobs count (ADP)
  7. USUS home sales
  8. USUS Fed's Barkin speaks
  9. USUS Fed's Collins speaks

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Just one person's opinion from their bedroom: no qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Leveraged products are high risk and you can lose all your money.