Markets go up. But not every day.
Just one person's opinion from their home library: no investment qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Shorting is high risk (but super fun).
Morning call 路 06:00 UK
My call: Short. Taking the overnight news and the diary together, I lean to a softer London session, which suits a short.
My call @ Fri 16 Oct 06:00 UK:ShortRight? @ Fri 16 Oct 16:30 UK:
Evening post 路 22:00 UK
Morning call 路 06:00 UK
My call: No trade. Nothing I can see in this morning's news or diary points to a fall, so I'm standing aside from a short.
My call @ Thu 15 Oct 06:00 UK:No tradeRight? @ Thu 15 Oct 16:30 UK:
Right: the FTSE rose a lot between my call and the 16:30 UK close, seemingly because official UK growth figures that morning showed the economy still growing, which eased gilt yields and helped the FTSE shrug off another tech sell-off.
Evening post 路 22:00 UK
This morning my call was No trade. I was right. The market was up a lot. Tomorrow's outlook. My call for tomorrow's open: No trade. The open has nothing pushing it down, so I'm standing aside from a short at the start.
My call @ Thu 15 Oct 22:00 UK:No tradeRight? @ Fri 16 Oct 08:00 UK:
Right: from my call to the London open the FTSE went sideways, and it looks as if traders held off while Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke in Bangkok before dawn UK time.
Morning call 路 06:00 UK
My call: No trade. I'm holding off a short today, as no driver for a fall shows up this morning.
My call @ Wed 14 Oct 05:57 UK:No tradeRight? @ Wed 14 Oct 16:30 UK:
Right: after my call the FTSE rose a little into the 16:30 UK close, and my guess is that the Bank of England's chief economist sounded doubtful about as many rate rises as markets expect, which lifted housebuilders even as US inflation ran hot.
Evening post 路 22:00 UK
This morning my call was No trade. I was right. The market was up a bit. Tomorrow's outlook. My call for tomorrow's open: No trade. After a strong day in London, nothing in tonight's news clearly points to a lower start, so I'm not shorting the open.
My call @ Wed 14 Oct 22:00 UK:No tradeRight? @ Thu 15 Oct 08:00 UK:
Right: by the London open the FTSE had gone sideways from where it was at my call, which I'd put down to the fact that the Fed's Beige Book showed patchy US growth and traders weighed the UK growth figures out just before the open.
Morning call 路 06:00 UK
My call: No trade. I don't see a clear downside driver today, so it's not a day to short.
My call @ Tue 13 Oct 10:40 UK:No tradeRight? @ Tue 13 Oct 16:30 UK:
Wrong: the FTSE fell a little between my call and the 16:30 UK close, which I think was because worries about the cost of the AI boom hit tech shares, after the IMF warned that morning that AI hopes could prove too optimistic.
Evening post 路 22:00 UK
This morning my call was No trade. I was wrong. The market was down a bit. Tomorrow's outlook. My call: Short. China's trade and inflation figures land overnight, and a weak reading on either is the likeliest route to a lower open for the miners.
My call @ Wed 14 Oct 01:21 UK:ShortRight? @ Wed 14 Oct 08:00 UK:
Wrong: from my call to the London open the FTSE went sideways, most likely because China's overnight inflation and trade figures gave markets little new to sell on.