📉 A Short Report

Markets go up. But not every day.

Just one person's opinion from their home library: no investment qualifications, no authority, not authorised by any regulatory body. Market commentary only, not advice or a recommendation. Shorting is high risk.

Trend friend? The FTSE's rising line

📉 A Short Report · Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · published 22:00 UK

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Chart: a broker's CFD price that tracks the FTSE 100, via TradingView. It isn't the official index and can differ slightly, especially outside UK market hours.
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Chart: a broker's CFD price that tracks the Cboe VIX volatility index, via TradingView. It isn't the official index and can differ. VIX® is a trade mark of Cboe Exchange, Inc.; no affiliation.

Published late, at about 01:21 on Wed 14 Oct, because of a technical glitch. Written at 22:00 Tuesday, unchanged.

How the morning call did

I made no down call; it slipped 0.1%, so I was right, just.

The rising line I leaned on held: the day's low stayed above it, so that support is still under the price tonight and a fall still has to get through it. What I got wrong was the shape of the day: it rose in the morning and gave all of it back, closing at 10,650, near the low. Price turned down from the morning high, which is the kind of failed rise a fall can start from.

After the US close

US shares (the S&P 500) barely moved, too small to tilt London's open either way.

Looking ahead to Asia

Japan's Nikkei futures point to a soft Tokyo open and more pressure on UK miners, which helps an early fall in London. China's trade figures land at 03:03 UK. A weak export number would hit Rio Tinto (RIO LN), Glencore (GLEN LN) and Anglo American (AAL LN), the FTSE's big miners, and that is the likeliest overnight route to a lower open. China's inflation figure is due at 02:30 UK, forecast 1.0%. A miss below that would say demand is still soft, which is bad for the miners and helps a fall.

My call

My call: down. It gave back the whole morning rise and closed near the low at 10,650, and a day that fails like that often follows through the next morning. How sure: fairly. What would change my mind: Asia rising overnight and the FTSE opening back above the middle of today's range. This is tomorrow's outlook for the London session. The 06:00 post makes the official call.